Disclaimer, methodology and references


This publication contains general information and, although Grant Thornton and Cox Automotive endeavour to ensure that the content is accurate and up to date at the date of publication, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness and therefore the information in this publication should not be relied upon.

Readers should always seek appropriate advice from a suitably qualified expert before taking, or refraining from taking, any action. The contents of this publication should not be construed as advice or guidance and Grant Thornton and Cox Automotive disclaim liability for any loss, howsoever caused, arising directly or indirectly from reliance on the information in this publication.


To build the forecasts for the new and used car and van markets, data was sourced from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, of which Cox Automotive UK is a member. Ratios were applied between the historic new and used market data to forecast 2022 and beyond. Specifically, forecasts were generated as a percentage of 2019 figures, with influences accounted for under equally weighted categories: Necessity, Affordability, Availability, Economy.

Primary research was conducted throughout 2021 via several Cox Automotive surveys. Permission has been granted by participants where comments have been attributed.

Secondary insight has been sourced from several industry bodies, organisations, government departments and media outlets. All secondary data has been noted in the reference section.


AA, 2021. AA Yonder Driver Poll Summaries 2021.
Basingstoke, AA https://www.theaa.com/about-us/public-affairs/aa-yonder-driver-poll-summaries-2021 [accessed 10 September 2021]

AA, 2021. New Horizons: Technology, customer service and the evolving automotive landscape.
London, AA

ACEA, 2021. Passenger car registrations: +11.2% eight months into 2021; ‐23.2% in July and ‐19.1% in August.
Belgium, ACEA https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/passenger-car-registrations-11-2-eight-months-into-2021-23-2-in-july-19-1-in-august/ [accessed 25 September 2021]

ACEA, 2021. The Automobile Industry: Pocket Guide 2021/2022.
Belgium, ACEA

Bousso, 2021. Shell to vastly expand EV charging network in Britain.
Reuters https://www.reuters.com/technology/shell-vastly-expand-ev-charging-network-britain-2021-08-31/ [accessed 12 September 2021]

Chockshi, N; Goldstein, M; & Woo, E, 2021. Biden’s Electric Car Plans Hinge on Having Enough Chargers.
New York, New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicle-charging-stations.html [accessed 12 September 2021]

CMA, 2021. Electric Vehicle Charging Market Study: Final Report. London, Competition and Markets Authorityhttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electric-vehicle-charging-market-study-final-report/final-report[accessed 12 September 2021]

Davies, Ellis, 2021. Almost half of buyers to go EV or hybrid for their next car.
Croydon, MotorTrader.com https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/almost-half-buyers-go-ev-hybrid-next-car-06-09-2021 [accessed 19 September 2021]

Davies, Ellis, 2021. EV market ‘isn’t where it needs to be’ for 2030 target, says Auto Trader.
Croydon, MotorTrader.com https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/ev-market-isnt-needs-2030-target-says-auto-trader-09-09-2021 [accessed 19 September 2021]

Dweck, Carol S, 2017. Mindset: Changing the Way You Think To Fulfil Your Potential.
New York, Robinson

Element Energy, 2020. Hydrogen Mobility Europe: Emerging Conclusions.
Brussels, Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking https://h2me.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/H2ME_Emerging-Conclusions2020.pdf[accessed 18 September 2021]

Ford, 2021. The Ford Electric Vehicle Strategy.
Michigan, Ford https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/the-ford-electric-vehicle-strategy--what-you-need-to-know.html [accessed 12 September 2021]

Greenpeace East Asia, 2020. EV Battery Report.
China, Greenpeace https://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/press/6175/greenpeace-report-troubleshoots-chinas-electric-vehicles-boom-highlights-critical-supply-risks-for-lithium-ion-batteries/ [accessed 19 September 2021]

Harari, Daniel; Keep, Matthew; & Brien, Phillip, 2021. Coronavirus: Economic impact.
London, House of Commons Library https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8866/ [accessed 26 September 2021]

Hasan, Saiful, 2021 (11). Assessment of electric vehicle repurchase intention: a survey-based study on the Norwegian EV market.
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198221001457 [accessed 19 September 2021]

HM Government, 2021. UK Hydrogen Strategy.
London, APS Group on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1011283/UK-Hydrogen-Strategy_web.pdf [accessed 18 September 2021]

Hydrogen Europe, 2021. H2ero Net Zero: Unlocking the potential of clean mobility: the revision of CO2 emissions standards for cars and vans.
Brussels, Hydrogen Europe https://www.hydrogeneurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/HE.07_Hydrogen-Europe-Position-Paper-on-the-CO2-ES-1.pdf [accessed 18 September 2021]

ICCT, 2021. Charging up America: assessing the growing need for US charging infrastructure through 2030.
Washington, International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/publications/charging-up-america-jul2021 [accessed 12 September 2021]

IEA, 2021. Global EV Outlook.
Paris, International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021 [accessed 12 September 2021]

Lloyds Bank, 2020. Lloyds Bank UK Consumer Digital Index 2020.
London, Lloyds Bank https://www.lloydsbank.com/assets/media/pdfs/banking_with_us/whats-happening/lb-consumer-digital-index-2020-report.pdf [accessed 19 September 2021]

Nagra, Daljinder, 2020. Electric car battery life – how concerned should you be about degradation?
London, Which? https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/10/electric-car-battery-life-how-concerned-should-you-be-about-degradation/ [accessed 19 September 2021]

NFDA, 2021. Dealer’s Recruitment Trends Reflect Industry Growth.
London, NFDA https://www.nfda-uk.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/dealers-recruitment-trends-reflect-industry-growth [accessed 19 September 2021]

OECD, 2021. Keeping the recovery on track: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2021.
Paris, OECD https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/ [accessed 26 September 2021]

Ofgem, 2021. Enabling the Transition to electric vehicles: the regulator’s priorities for a green, fair future.
London, Ofgem https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-09/Enabling%20the%20transition%20to%20electric%20vehicles%20-%20the%20regulators%20priorities%20for%20a%20green%20fair%20future.pdf [accessed 19 September 2021]

ONS, 2021. Weekly household spending fell by more than £100 on average during the coronavirus pandemic.
London, Office for National Statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/expenditure/articles/weeklyhouseholdspendingfellbymorethan100onaverageduringthecoronaviruspandemic/2021-09-13 [accessed 26 September 2021]

Regit, 2021. Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey.
Macclesfield, Motoring.co.uk t/a Regit

SMMT, 2020. Fuelling the Fleet: Delivering Commercial Vehicle Decarbonisation.
London, SMMThttps://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-Fuelling-the-Fleet-Driving-Commercial-Vehicle-Decarbonisation.pdf [accessed 6 September 2021]

SMMT, 2021. July 2021 SMMT UK New Car and LCV Registrations Outlook to 2022.
London, SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/WEBSUM-SMMT-CARLCV-MARKET-OUTLOOK-Q3-30072021.pdf [accessed 11 September 2021]

SMMT, 2021. LCV Registrations.
London, SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/lcv-registrations/[accessed 11 September 2021]

SMMT, 2021. Car Registrations.
London, SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/[accessed 25 September 2021]

SMMT, 2021. Used Car Sales Q2 2021.
London, SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/08/used-car-sales-q2-2021/ [accessed 26 September 2021]

Stellantis, 2021. Stellantis EV Day 2021.
Amsterdam, Stellantis https://www.stellantis.com/en/investors/events/ev-day-2021 [accessed 12 September 2021]

Todts, W, et al, 2020. Recharge EU: How many charge points will Europe and its member states need in the 2020s?
Brussels, Transport and Environment https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/01%202020%20Draft%20TE%20Infrastructure%20Report%20Final.pdf [accessed 12 September 2021]

VanNieuwkuyk, Mike, 2021. Ipsos Study Finds Dealers Not Ready for Influx of EV Curious Shoppers.
US, Ipsos https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Ipsos-Study-Finds-Dealers-Not-Ready-for-Influx-of-EV-Curious-Shoppers [accessed 19 September 2021]

World Health Organisation, 2021. Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 21 September 2021.
Geneva, World Health Organisation https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---21-september-2021 [accessed 25 September 2021]

YouGov, 2021. International Automotive Report 2021.
London, YouGov

Zap-Map, 2021. EV Charging Stats 2021.
Bristol, Zap-Map.com https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/#points[accessed 12 September 2021]

Zutobi, 2021. The US Electric Vehicle Charging Point Report 2021.
United States, Zutobi.com https://zutobi.com/us/driver-guides/the-us-electric-vehicle-charging-point-report [accessed 12 September 2021]