Disclaimer, methodology and references


This publication contains general information and, although Grant Thornton and Cox Automotive endeavour to ensure that the content is accurate and up to date at the date of publication, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness and therefore the information in this publication should not be relied upon.

Readers should always seek appropriate advice from a suitably qualified expert before taking, or refraining from taking, any action. The contents of this publication should not be construed as advice or guidance and Grant Thornton and Cox Automotive disclaim liability for any loss, howsoever caused, arising directly or indirectly from reliance on the information in this publication.


To build the forecasts for the new and used car and van markets, data was sourced from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, of which Cox Automotive UK is a member. Ratios were applied between the historic new and used market data to forecast 2022 and beyond. Specifically, forecasts were generated as a percentage of 2019 figures, with influences accounted for under equally weighted categories: Necessity, Affordability, Availability, Economy.

Primary research was conducted throughout 2021 via several Cox Automotive surveys. Permission has been granted by participants where comments have been attributed.

Secondary insight has been sourced from several industry bodies, organisations, government departments and media outlets. All secondary data has been noted in the reference section.


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AA, 2021. New Horizons: Technology, customer service and the evolving automotive landscape.
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ACEA, 2021. Passenger car registrations: +11.2% eight months into 2021; ‐23.2% in July and ‐19.1% in August.
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Bousso, 2021. Shell to vastly expand EV charging network in Britain.
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Davies, Ellis, 2021. EV market ‘isn’t where it needs to be’ for 2030 target, says Auto Trader.
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IEA, 2021. Global EV Outlook.
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Lloyds Bank, 2020. Lloyds Bank UK Consumer Digital Index 2020.
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Nagra, Daljinder, 2020. Electric car battery life – how concerned should you be about degradation?
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NFDA, 2021. Dealer’s Recruitment Trends Reflect Industry Growth.
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ONS, 2021. Weekly household spending fell by more than £100 on average during the coronavirus pandemic.
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SMMT, 2021. Car Registrations.
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SMMT, 2021. Used Car Sales Q2 2021.
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