AUTHORS
Philip Nothard
INSIGHT DIRECTOR
COX AUTOMOTIVE
Owen Edwards
head of downstream automotive
grant thornton uk llp
Phillip Northard
INSIGHT DIRECTOR
With so much changing in the world of automotive, now is the ideal time to take stock and look ahead.
Produced in collaboration with Grant Thornton, the Cox Automotive Insight Report is a comprehensive overview and analysis of our industry, drawing on data and insight from a wide range of sources.
Zooming in on two major topics: the changing face of automotive retail and the irreversible push towards zero-emission motoring, the report also includes forecasts and commentary on the UK's new and used car markets, as well as insights into the LCV sector. Additionally, drawing on the global expertise of Cox Automotive, the report features assessments of the European, US and Australian markets.
Our forecasts predict new and used market volumes for 2024 and 2025, together with our five and 10-year projections. The latest forecast accuracy averages 99.1%, meaning ours are outlooks that can be relied on.
Essential reading for manufacturers, retailers, fleet managers, investors and policymakers alike, our Insight Report is a rich resource for anyone with a vested interest in the latest industry developments and what its future holds.
We hope you enjoy our latest report and find its contents valuable, why not get in touch and tell us your thoughts?
It's six years since we first published our new and used car market forecasts, together with perspectives on the key issues facing the European automotive sector. The positive reception we received then leads us to this point today, the publication of our fifth annual Cox Automotive Insight Report.
Much has happened since 2018 and much more is to come as we head towards the end of the decade and beyond. The global automotive sector is still in a period of seismic change, the likes of which have not been seen for a generation.
Many of the trends we focused on then remain on our collective agendas today, others now seem a distant memory. But while the hot topics and acronyms have evolved, the resulting themes haven't. Just as it was then, the need to be informed, agile, and customer-centric remains true today.
It's for this reason we invest in insight. We believe that when you have a great view, it's right to share it. Here in Europe, throughout the US and in key markets across the world, Cox Automotive occupies a privileged place at the heart of the automotive sector: from the factory gate to the scrapyard, there are few aspects of the vehicle lifecycle we don't touch, influence or experience. We therefore understand – acutely – what's driving the actions and strategic decision-making of retailers, fleets and manufacturers, and their respective influences on the entire value chain.
But we don't profess to have all the knowledge, nor all the answers. That's why we have again partnered with Grant Thornton for this year’s report to bring in their perspectives and experience. I'm grateful for their support and to the many customers and contributors who've helped inform the report’s focus areas by sharing their perspectives.
Despite the volatility and complexity of today’s automotive market, the future is exciting and packed with opportunity. The market we knew before the pandemic is behind us but there's plenty to be optimistic about. In this report, we set out why. We'd love to hear your thoughts and feedback, please do join our conversation on LinkedIn.
President, Cox Automotive International
We are delighted to partner with Cox Automotive once again to share our views and outlook in this Insight Report 2023/24. Over the past few years, the automotive industry has continued to face headwinds from challenges such as COVID-19, vehicle shortages and a deteriorating global economy. Nevertheless, the industry continues to adapt and innovate with advancements across the whole sector.
Once again, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have proved pivotal to the sector and this trend is set to continue for many years to come. Increased production of BEVs has been driven by global emissions legislation, but consumers remain preoccupied with high EV prices, while range and charging anxiety continue to cause concern. These issues are slowly being resolved through improvements in battery technology and investment in public and private charging infrastructure.
Autonomous vehicles are continuing to develop at a rapid pace, but the self-driving vehicle still remains some way off. Products, such as Tesla Autopilot, are pushing the boundaries for full autonomy, but significant investment is still needed for complete autonomy where human interaction is no longer required. Changes in legislation are helping to ensure that the development of autonomy remains controlled and safe for pedestrians and drivers.
The green agenda remains at the forefront of the industry’s consciousness, and many automotive companies are announcing their net-zero strategies. These have become increasingly comprehensive, encompassing not only vehicle emissions, but also CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions produced by the supply of parts, manufacturing, distribution, vehicle retail and the eventual refurbishment or recycling of its components.
As we work through the final quarter of 2023, we look forward to 2024, when we believe vehicle supply should return to more normal pre-COVID levels. The market will continue to grow for both new and used vehicles. At Grant Thornton, we believe that the key to success will be proactive planning for this growth alongside a robust, flexible strategy that can continue to evolve over the coming years against an ever-changing backdrop. Nevertheless, even in a growth period, companies should continue to align their costs to growth in 2024 and beyond. I hope that you enjoy this fifth edition of the Cox Automotive Grant Thornton Insight Report and find it a valuable resource when building your future strategy.
CEO, Grant Thornton UK LLP
Phillip Northard
INSIGHT DIRECTOR
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